Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 27.405393 29.222248 31.173983 33.440052 36.016269 38.875570 42.319882
2025-11-30 24.676126 27.127864 29.914919 33.365043 37.591503 42.700535 49.512203
2025-12-07 22.917817 25.650583 28.864274 33.005497 38.334281 45.171718 55.010221
2025-12-14 21.071011 23.848209 27.184766 31.597667 37.466193 45.316039 57.263298
2025-12-21 20.224702 23.161602 26.771468 31.683326 38.461201 47.976458 63.485756
2025-12-28 19.627478 22.720928 26.604197 32.031665 39.794824 51.238479 71.307311
2026-01-04 18.700122 21.794348 25.730811 31.328629 39.527560 52.022611 75.114813
2026-01-11 18.370011 21.609050 25.806463 31.922184 41.190055 56.028955 85.794882
2026-01-18 17.963788 21.294267 25.677247 32.196825 42.374788 59.415310 96.405013
2026-01-25 17.311283 20.617110 25.008967 31.626245 42.152954 60.297602 101.874601
2026-02-01 16.700191 19.968292 24.345048 31.012696 41.794545 60.865448 106.807879
2026-02-08 16.109334 19.323442 23.655962 30.315849 41.231548 60.962974 110.615222
2026-02-15 15.770359 19.078205 23.615286 30.761738 42.920328 66.302978 133.523975
2026-02-22 15.285244 18.617342 23.252171 30.700033 43.775971 70.332183 157.254540
2026-03-01 14.784447 18.102903 22.769743 30.389253 44.112660 73.297353 181.084081
2026-03-08 14.081647 17.272777 21.777074 29.170747 42.604145 71.636121 183.802611
2026-03-15 13.772441 16.987555 21.578728 29.245045 43.572735 76.239802 224.679754
2026-03-22 13.544388 16.806084 21.522553 29.547012 45.026033 82.600103 295.457330
2026-03-29 13.111773 16.310568 20.960936 28.937204 44.538646 83.504913 331.042784
2026-04-05 12.972981 16.236652 21.043233 29.452143 46.479246 92.263298 507.633291
2026-04-12 12.779540 16.073083 20.974719 29.690059 47.858108 100.007538 828.126049
2026-04-19 12.438441 15.677837 20.521247 29.195531 47.517725 101.749384 1092.728167
2026-04-26 12.107894 15.288382 20.061952 28.662694 47.031453 102.851620 1464.057791